This month, the courts profoundly redrew the political landscape ahead of the 2027 presidential election. Marine Le Pen's sentencing to a term of imprisonment served under electronic monitoring—which nonetheless leaves her eligible to stand in the election—marks a major turning point. At the same time, the criminal-justice bill was definitively adopted, but stripped of its flagship "guilty plea" provision, dealing a defeat to the Minister of Justice and illustrating the Executive's difficulties in dealing with Parliament.

On the political front, the opposition is showcasing its ambitions: Jean-Luc Mélenchon is reasserting himself as the leader of the left in opinion polls and is unveiling structuring proposals, while Jordan Bardella is positioning the Rassemblement National as a force ready to govern. The Executive, for its part, is under pressure. Several warnings have been issued regarding the deterioration of public finances and France's lag in meeting its climate targets, while tensions are emerging within the majority itself over the strategy to adopt, notably on the use of Article 49.3 for the next budget.

Marine Le Pen's Eligibility and the Adoption of the Darmanin Law Place Justice at the Heart of the Pre-Campaign

The period was marked by a court decision with major political impact. On 7 July, Marine Le Pen was sentenced to one year's imprisonment, served under electronic monitoring, with a 45-month ban from public office reduced to 30 months suspended, which nonetheless leaves her eligible and therefore a potential candidate in the 2027 presidential election (Public Sénat, 07/07). This verdict, which some analysts see as turning a judicial risk into a political asset, places the leader of the Rassemblement National (RN) in a posture of defiance towards the institutions—a strategy also employed by other populist figures (Politico EU, 08/07). The situation underscores the way in which judicial cases are now becoming intertwined with the electoral calendar, a trend affecting several leading figures (L'Express, 05/07).

At the same time, the Government achieved a mixed success on the legislative front. The criminal-justice bill, championed by Minister of Justice Gérald Darmanin, was definitively adopted by Parliament following a final Senate vote on 9 July (Libération, 09/07). However, the text was stripped of its flagship measure, the generalised "guilty plea", removed during the parliamentary shuttle, which constitutes a major concession by the Executive. The final text nonetheless remains significant, with several provisions adopted (Public Sénat, 09/07). This law is one of the consequences of the "Lyhanna affair" (context - 06/2026), which had prompted Mr Darmanin to promise a "digital shock" at the Ministry of Justice, with a "paperless within six months" objective to modernise the judicial administration (franceinfo.fr, 23/06).

The political climate also became tense on the judicial plane for other actors. The Les Républicains (LR) senator for Paris, Francis Szpiner, was placed under formal investigation for passive corruption, adding to the pressure on the political class (franceinfo.fr, 09/07). On the left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon is the subject of a complaint for glorifying terrorism, filed by three French victims of the 7 October attacks, following his controversial remarks (Le Figaro, 29/06).

The Executive Under Pressure from Public Finances and the Climate

The Government faces a twofold front of criticism over its budgetary and environmental management. On 7 July, the public-finances alert committee sounded the alarm, prompting a sharp reaction from the Senate's general budget rapporteur: "Matignon, we are in the soup" (Public Sénat, 07/07). This warning is corroborated by former Economy Minister Eric Lombard, who in an op-ed contends that France now pays more in interest on its debt than in funding to educate its youth and calls for a stabilisation of the debt during the presidential campaign (Le Monde, 11/07). The controversy also touched sectoral budgets, with questions over possible cuts to the civil-defence budget that reportedly led to the cancellation of an order for two Canadair aircraft (franceinfo.fr, 14/07).

On the climate front, the picture is equally bleak. The last annual report of the Haut Conseil pour le climat (HCC) of the Macron era, published on 9 July, stresses that France is accumulating delays in the financing and pace of its decarbonisation and its adaptation to climate shocks. The report concludes that it will fall to the next president to reverse this trend (Contexte, 09/07). This publication comes as the country experiences a severe heatwave, which led the ecologist group in the Assembly, through Cyrielle Chatelain, to threaten to table a motion of no confidence to sanction the government's inaction (Le Figaro, 30/06). Specialists have also criticised the housing bill, deemed ill-suited to the climate emergency (L'Express, 10/07).

Sébastien Lecornu on the Legislative Offensive, Parliament as a Counterweight

Faced with a complex political context, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu has launched a legislative offensive on sovereign themes. Confronted with a "very acute" risk of foreign interference during the next presidential election, on 8 July he announced the preparation of a bill by the end of the month aimed at tripling the penalties for disseminating false information during electoral periods (Public Sénat, 08/07; Le Monde, 08/07). This text would also create a "public-information commission" to expose disinformation. On the same day, in response to what he called a "significant Uberisation" of drug trafficking, Mr Lecornu announced another bill to toughen the penalties for the offence of passive corruption of public officials (Public Sénat, 08/07).

However, Parliament does not intend to give the Executive free rein. In the Senate, a group of LR senators led by Roger Karoutchi published a "counter-report" on the reform of public broadcasting, directly opposing the government's plan for a "France Médias" holding company and proposing a more radical approach that could go as far as selling France Télévisions (Le Parisien, n.d.; Le Monde, 11/07). In the National Assembly, Speaker Yaël Braun-Pivet argued for a "concerted" use of Article 49.3 in relation to the next budget, calling for a negotiation towards a "reasonable" and "responsible" text rather than a forced passage (LCP — Assemblée nationale, 09/07). She also advised Emmanuel Macron against dissolving the Assembly before 2027 (Libération, 10/07), a sign of the tensions within the majority.

The Race for 2027 Intensifies, Mélenchon and Bardella Display Their Ambitions

While the presidential camp appears to be in search of a new strategy, with Gabriel Attal still in a "challenger" position (Le Figaro, 12/07), the opposition is holding the ground. On the left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon is enjoying a marked resurgence. According to an Odoxa-Mascaret poll, he reclaims leadership among left-wing sympathisers with 49% support and reaches 16% of voting intentions, even though he remains the figure most rejected by the French as a whole (69%) (Public Sénat, 30/06). Capitalising on this momentum, he presented a flagship proposal of his presidential platform: the redrawing of France into 13 "eco-regions" based on river basins, to make the country the "world's leading ecological Republic" (Public Sénat, 02/07).

On the far right, Jordan Bardella is pursuing his strategy of mainstreaming. In an interview with Le Figaro on 12 July, the RN president clearly defined his objective: "My responsibility is to build the programme, form a government and win a majority" (Le Figaro, 12/07). This statement is intended to project the image of a party ready to exercise power, echoing the situation of Marine Le Pen, now free to campaign.

To Watch

  • Lecornu Bills: The texts toughening penalties for disseminating false information during electoral periods and for passive corruption are expected to be presented to the Council of Ministers by the end of July.
  • End of Life: The examination of the bill relating to the right to assisted dying, which was in its third reading in the National Assembly at the end of June, is expected to continue to generate intense debate, notably over the anticipated referral to the Constitutional Council.
  • Public Broadcasting Reform: The parliamentary battle promises to be fierce, with the presentation of the LR senators' counter-report foreshadowing strong opposition to the government's plan in the Senate.
  • Preparation of the 2027 Budget: The National Assembly Speaker's calls for "consultation" and the warnings on public finances point to difficult autumn negotiations, with the question of the use of Article 49.3 as a potential flashpoint.

Photo: Sebastian Oliveira / Unsplash